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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still